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各大论坛期货老手的最终结局

本帖被 1 执行置顶操作(2022-01-12)
现在各大论坛抖音到处都在炒作waihuibbs的911靠炒黄金获利上千亿的事,不否认,911确实是个天才,我也有幸亲眼目睹过他现场操盘,确实名不虚传,我服,但是我更认为他是我们这个行业的一个例外(而且他那么强的技术背后还背靠整个汇协全世界各地的给他搜集第一手的基本面情报)所以他能创造奇迹也是水到渠成的事。但是你们知道更多的绝大多数的操盘手最后真实的结局吗?我这里稍微整理了下,希望能更客观地帮助大家了解一下这行的水深,吹水就算了,论真正实战中真要像911那样稳健持续稳定的收益靠单打独斗是否现实?

上海战斗队的“糖王”-- 在08年时从3800重仓多糖一直到3279止损,亏得无事浑身冒出汗,见糖就怕,谈甜色变,誓不碰糖。一碰糖就要去马路上裸奔。悲惨吧,这都是期货害的。(固执己见、不及时纠错是问题的关键!)

和大爷 -- 自称“玉米王中王”。8月初901玉米从2040做满仓多,加5次保证金。一直做到1708止损,刚止损马上就反弹,气得卧床三日,从此玉米不敢做多,呆呆的看着玉米天天涨升。又一个国家一级人才就这样被期货整傻了。(原因同上。)

吴发发 -- 号称“期货基本面的特级大师”。走遍大江南北,从大豆到小麦,从玉米到棉花,从伦铜到上锌,说得头头是道,摸得清清楚楚。然而基本面研究再透也没有用,因为有时市场是非理性的。在08年初的时候他分析基本面时认为豆油过份上涨了,便重仓以10036做空一直空到13800止损,输得连队裤衩都不留,现流浪他乡,杳无音信。(基本面分析 + 固执己见。)

长线是金 -- 和讯第一个孔乙已式的人物(有小说为证)。在位时狂叫“我只要一手玉米,就可拥有整个世界”。在08年7月份从玉米05合约的最高价1980重仓(就一手)做多,中间用自己的工资加了13次保证金,一直多到08年12月份的1470止损。后眼睁睁的看着玉米越涨越高,实盘没钱,只有嘴盘做多。现在连嘴盘也无力叫了。悲者长金,痛者长金!(固执己见 + 错上加错。)

五万变千万 -- 真正的期货怪才,做铜屡创佳绩,日赢五万,家常便饭。夺金目标 -- 五万一年做到千万。狂称自已从闪电图上探索到期货赢利真谛。于是天天满仓进出,日均发贴50次以上,导至整个和讯红眼病爆发。但终因败在资金管理上,后来在铜的大起大落中,小五满仓操作上下来回吃巴撑暴了,从此再也没他的消息了。(认知问题,根本不明白交易、却自以为什么都懂了。)

多空俊秀 -- 曾自称“我做多的品种,这品种只能涨”。此言何等的嚣张,不过以他在期市混十几年来看的确有点本事。07年底的那一场轰轰烈烈的大豆涨势他也多进去了,太容易得来的大财使他飘飘然!在08年3月14号,他认为大豆回调到位了,便以4500的高价重仓追多,之后四个连续的爆跌,使这位期货王子十几年的心血毁于一旦。从此这个期货牛人就慢慢转型炒股去了,现在仍是以炒股为主。(偶然当必然 + 心态管理上出了问题。)

在人间 -- 虽不是元老级国宝,但和讯一贴“我完全不懂很多人为什么会亏钱”(我现在想起来我转载过这篇博文,写的很好,可惜执行的时候还是出问题。这不是他一个人的问题,是人类的问题!),在和讯家喻户晓。他最特别的就是研究了一套“幽灵操作法”,一时间为他带来了丰厚的回报,所以他奇怪别人为啥会亏钱?无限的自信(我们需要自信,但过度的自信就是“刚愎自用”了,要小心这样的心态!)给这位灵王带来了一失足成千古恨下场。在08年9月份时以21000的价格重仓做多天胶,一不小心两天留夜,来了两个大跌,但灵王自信还能大涨,后来的金融危机爆发便足足出现连续五天的跌停,把他打回人类原形,从此不碰期货,回到工薪人间去了。(心态管理上出了问题。前两天的博文刚刚说过。)

期货神经质 -- 期货界国宝元老,自称从上世纪90年代500元开始炒绿豆期货发家。一时家财万贯,从此相信一个消防队还不如自己一泡尿。后来沪铜大涨,“期货国宝”一路追杀,梦想创造第二次绿豆奇迹。06年6月在沪铜84000的珠峰价上依然全仓做多。外出青岛旅游,一周后期货公司先后300个电话催保证金。此时“期货国宝”倘在海滩椅上已起不来了,对着大海发呆的双眼已是非正常人的本色。贪心所害啊。后人戒之。后人戒之呀。(外出必须平仓!在市场“一切皆有可能”!飘飘然的心态、过分自信的心态,危险!)

呵呵888 -- 虽是老股新期,但对和讯之影响前无古人、后无来者。“以信念振憾并杀死对手”是三8人生的座右铭。并扬言我喜欢的地方,就是捡钱的地方。奉洋人大师巴非特、索螺丝为教父,相信三十八年的大牛将开始,在农品玉米、大豆、小麦、棉花、白糖天价之上极力长线做多。忽悠了众多的新手,亏暴了一大批跟随者,使整个和讯怨声连天、血醒遍地。活活的被群小散骂得再也不见人影。(交易思想理念问题 + 刚愎自用。)

老程 -- 安徽亳州人。入市时也是几十万,两个多月赔完后成为经纪人。为把女房东开发成客户,采用了先和女房东发展暧昧关系,后拉其当客户的办法。女房东投了5万元,后来他也赔光了。前前后后十几个客户都是女的,他真有这方面的本事!后来老程离开期市,去年我在网上碰到他时,他说在拉三轮车。(根本不知道自己是谁,就闯入市场。)

做期货若烹小鲜 -- 期货烹饪王。上世纪未上海金茂大厦一级厨师,后来接触期货,认为炒小菜不如炒期货,就拿了当月工资杀入期市。以他调油、盐、酱、醋之水平,小心翼翼的出入市场,雪球越滚越大。随之而来的是胆大心高,贪心一发不可收拾。好在“烹王”为人不错,苍天照应,长、中、短线出击,时时收获非浅。直接导致把调油、盐、酱、醋的小心炒法忘得一干二净。在大豆和白糖上一个劲地长线做多,跌了加多仓,再跌再加仓。眼巴巴看着大把大把的人民币交进期交所而坚不止损。到现在连进入期货时的一个月工资也花为灰尽,万籁俱寂,梦想终究归于现实。金茂大厦重现了一位一级炒手 -- 炒菜的高手。(心态管理问题,忘乎所以。)

孟浩然 -- 听名字你就知道,这人具有诗人般气质。但实际上只是个中专毕业生,是一家速冻食品厂文员。他是被好友拉进期市的,听了两堂课就上瘾了,投入5万元,委托一个经纪人给他做。那个经纪人给他赔了4000多元,他十分生气,大骂经纪人无能。于是辞掉工作自己亲自做,他对RSI指标情有独钟。他最得意时一天挣过7000元。他全身心投入,最爱炒短线,自称短线侠客。资金忽大忽小,但总体是不断缩水的。他暴过两次仓,第三次他投入最多是10万元,全是亲戚朋友处借来的。他在我们当中最有名的名言是:“这个市场不能没有我!”但是,当他又快没钱时,“醒悟”地告诉我们:“期货不能炒短线!”他是怀着恋恋不舍的心情离开期市的。(胡乱操作的典型。)

云从龙 -- 这是我七号群的一个群友。从18500开始空棉,一直空到30000时才抗不住砍掉,亏完了全部的资金,中间还卖了一套房子以追加保证金。现在没钱了,期货梦也从此结束了。(胡乱操作 + 固执己见的典型。)

911---香港人,唯一一个成功上岸的职业操盘手,曾经活跃于中国外汇论坛,主要操作外汇、贵金属等外盘期货,十年间其实盘仓位已翻了上万倍达到上千亿,不过据说近期其账户在CFCT的审查中被发现并且开始调查,因此此人至2020年后更加低调。

期货是一个没有消烟的战场。在这里,成者为王,败者为寇。别的行业就算混得差,至少还可以混个饭吃,还可以赚点小钱,但这行不同,从长期来看,这行的人要么成功,要么失败,根本就没有中间状态。
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平平淡淡,健健康康,快快乐乐。
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Perfect Cycle

Once identified and understood, cycles can add significant value to the technical analysis toolbox. However, they are not perfect. Some will miss, some will disappear and some will provide a direct hit. This is why it is important to use cycles in conjunction with other aspects of technical analysis. Trend establishes direction, oscillators define momentum and cycles anticipate turning points. Look for confirmation with support or resistance on the price chart or a turn in a key momentum oscillator. It can also help to combine cycles. For example, the stock market is known to have 10-week, 20-week, and 40-week cycles. These cycles can be combined with the Six Month Cycle and Presidential Cycle for added value. Signals are enhanced when multiple cycles nest at a cycle low.

A cycle is an event, such as a price high or low, which repeats itself on a regular basis. Cycles exist in the economy, in nature and in financial markets. The basic business cycle encompasses an economic downturn, bottom, economic upturn, and top. Cycles in nature include the four seasons and solar activity (11 years). Cycles are also part of technical analysis of the financial markets. Cycle theory asserts that cyclical forces, both long and short, drive price movements in the financial markets.

Price and time cycles are used to anticipate turning points. Lows are normally used to define cycle length and then project future cycle lows. Even though there is evidence that cycles do indeed exist, they tend to change over time and can even disappear for a while. While this may sound discouraging, trend is the same way. There is indeed evidence that markets trend, but not all the time. Trend disappears when markets move into a trading range and reverses when prices change direction. Cycles can also disappear and even invert. Do not expect cycle analysis to pinpoint reaction highs or lows. Instead, cycle analysis should be used in conjunction with other aspects of technical analysis to anticipate turning points.

The Perfect Cycle and stock signals
The image below shows a perfect cycle with a length of 100 days. The first peak is at 25 days and the second peak is at 125 days (125 - 25 = 100). The first cycle low is at 75 days and the second cycle low is at 175 days (also 100 days later). Notice that the cycle crosses the X-axis at 50, 100 and 150, which is every 50 points or half a cycle.

Cycle Characteristics and Best Signals

Cycle Length: Lows are usually used to define the length of a cycle and project the cycle into the future. A cycle high can be expected somewhere between the cycle lows.

Translation: Cycles almost never peak at the exact midpoint nor trough at the expected cycle low. Most often, peaks occur before or after the midpoint of the cycle. Right translation is the tendency of prices to peak in the latter part of the cycle during bull markets. Conversely, left translation is the tendency of prices to peak in the front half of the cycle during bear markets. Prices tend to peak later in bull markets and earlier in bear markets.

Harmonics: Larger cycles can be broken down into smaller, and equal, cycles. A 40-week cycle divides into two 20-week cycles. A 20-week cycle divides into two 10-week cycles. Sometimes a larger cycle can divide into three or more parts. The inverse is also true. Small cycles can multiply into larger cycles. A 10-week cycle can be part of a larger 20-week cycle and an even larger 40-week cycle.
XAUUSD signal

Nesting: A cycle low is reinforced when several cycles signal a trough at the same time. The 10-week, 20-week, and 40-week cycles are nesting when they all trough at the same time.

Inversions: Sometimes a cycle high occurs when there should be a cycle low and vice versa. This can happen when a cycle high or low is skipped or is minimal. A cycle low may be short or almost non-existent in a strong uptrend. Similarly, markets can fall fast and skip a cycle high during sharp declines. Inversions are more prominent with shorter cycles and less common with longer cycles. For instance, one could expect more inversions with a 10-week cycle than a 40-week cycle.
Forex trading Signals
Data Categories
The data points on a price chart can be split into three categories: trending, cyclical or random. Trending data points are part of a sustained directional move, usually up or down. Cyclical data points are recurring diversions from the mean. Diversions occur when prices move above or below the mean. Random data points are noise, usually caused by intraday or daily volatility.
best signals

Cycles can be found by removing trend and random noise from the price data. Random data points can be removed by smoothing the data with a moving average. The trend can be isolated by de-trending the data. This can be done by focusing on movements above and below a moving average.
Read more on
https://www.gold-pattern.com/en
https://www.gold-pattern.com/en/best-signals
https://www.gold-pattern.com/en/gold-signals.html
https://www.gold-pattern.com/en/forex-signals.html
https://www.gold-pattern.com/en/stock-signals


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